Enhanced Monte Carlo Schedule Analysis: Evaluation of the Open-Source Pert-Based Simulation Tool

Keywords:
Monte Carlo Simulation, Project Schedule, PERT, Open-source

Abstract:
Monte Carlo simulations represent a powerful and beneficial method for risk analysis and decision-making, especially in project management. Traditionally, proprietary software such as Oracle Crystal Ball has been the go-to solution for Monte Carlo simulations, offering advanced features at a significant cost. Recently, web-based open-source tools, such as the PERT-based Monte Carlo simulation Tool, have emerged as a viable alternative. This study compares the performance of an open-source, web-based Monte Carlo simulation tool using PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) methodology against Oracle Crystal Ball, a widely adopted commercial software. By analysing a simplified project schedule with varying levels of uncertainty, we evaluate the accuracy, usability, scalability, and cost-effectiveness of the open-source tool. Results demonstrate that the open-source PERT-based Monte Carlo simulation tool provides similar, if not superior, results in terms of accuracy and usability while offering significant advantages in terms of cost, accessibility, and adaptability.

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G. Avlijaš, “Enhanced Monte Carlo Schedule Analysis: Evaluation of the Open-Source Pert-Based Simulation Tool,” in Sinteza 2025 - International Scientific Conference on Information Technology, Computer Science, and Data Science, Belgrade, Singidunum University, Serbia, 2025, pp. 341-346. doi:10.15308/Sinteza-2025-341-346

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Avlijaš, G. (2025). Enhanced Monte Carlo Schedule Analysis: Evaluation of the Open-Source Pert-Based Simulation Tool. Paper presented at Sinteza 2025 - International Scientific Conference on Information Technology, Computer Science, and Data Science. doi:10.15308/Sinteza-2025-341-346

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